National Unity Government (NUG) had promised to bring peace
and stability during their election campaigns. For this end, Ashraf Ghani remarkably
changed his foreign policy vis-à-vis Pakistan, which has been considered the
key for what NUG had pledged to fulfill. This paradigm change has been severely
criticized inside Afghanistan. Critics argue that Ghani has been offering more
while receiving nothing or very little. We discuss that the rapprochement,
bearing in mind the key role and dependency on Pakistan, is an attempt to
balance relations between two rivals (Pakistan and India) rather than
asymmetric concessions.
Afghanistan and Pakistan
relation have been drastically improved since Ashraf Ghani took office on 29th
of September 2014. Visits of high ranking officials of the two countries
including President Ashraf Ghani, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, chiefs of army
staffs Raheel Sharif of Pakistan and Sher Mohammad Karimi of Afghanistan and
heads of Inter Service Intelligences Rizwan Akhter have been increased.
Afghanistan for the very first time sent army cadets to be trained at the
Pakistan Military Academy in Abbottabad and this was something Pakistan has been
reportedly eying to achieve since the Taliban has been ousted.
A much hyped
intelligence sharing memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been allegedly
signed between Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) and National Directorate of
Security (NDS) though it has not been officially confirmed yet. Although the
MoU has not been made publicly available yet, leaked reports suggest that,
besides sharing intelligence information about terrorism, it will bind AfPak to
conduct coordinated cross-border military operations against insurgency and
‘separatists’. AfPak relations were greatly suffering lack of trust and neither
side was believing in what the other was stating publicly. To cripple suspicion
and build trust, a bold initiative seems prerequisite.
In response, so far Pakistan army has stopped mortar shelling
of Kunar province of Afghanistan which took tens of civilians’ lives in the
past. The army had been claiming of targeting Tahrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
who they thought were hiding there, but this claim has been repeatedly rejected
by Afghan government. Mortar shelling was one of tense issues between Pakistan
and Hamid Karzai government, which had in turns deteriorated relations. Besides
that, Pakistan national security adviser Sartaj Aziz recently stated that they
have facilitated Taliban and Afghan government envoys meeting in Uromqi of
Xinjiang province of China though Taliban rejected and called those who were
representing Taliban ‘unauthorized’ ones. Aziz further said that the two will
have another meeting in a week and it has also been said that ‘good news’ about
peace is due in three months. Furthermore, Pakistan has publically made it
clear that ‘enemies of Afghanistan are enemies of Pakistan’. Since action
matters more than sheer words, Afghan government should seek a more solid
reciprocation.
Although AfPak relations have been improving, security
situation is deteriorating in Afghanistan. Causalities of Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF) have increased. Two districts in Kunduz and another one
in Kunar have fallen to Taliban. Hike in instability seems to be more seasonal
bearing in mind the fighting season, but this year the scale of insurgency is
unmatchable. The intensity in attacks
may have reason and it is; strike with full strength which could lead you to gain
more and dominate if peace talks are to be negotiated.
Afghan president is also under fire inside Afghanistan for marginalizing
India. Criticism come mostly from the predecessor and of those who had
antagonistic relations with Pakistan during the past two decades. Hamid Karzai’s government had friendly
relations with India. They signed Strategic Partnership Agreement[1],
which stipulates India to train and equip Afghan army. Republic of India has
spent more than $ 2.5 billion in re/construction of Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani,
considering Pakistan’s sensitivity, relatively goes cautiously with India.
The
most serious issue for Pakistan, what I learnt during my research on AfPak
among other (the Durand Line, Baluch ‘separatists’, Tahrik-Taliban Pakistan,
water management and Afghan refugee) was the growing involvement and visibility
of India, “Pakistan takes the issues of ‘Indianization’[2]
of Afghanistan very seriously”. Parvez Musharaf, ex-president and Chief of Army
Staff of Pakistan, once warned countermeasure if India keeps further domination
in Afghanistan. Afghanistan as a sovereign state has legitimate right to
establish relations with any country that suits her interests the best. Nevertheless,
to expect tangible outcome from Pakistan, it is not free of cost. However,
Ashraf Ghani paid an official visit to India where he stated in remarks to
business community “we want to assure you that if you invest in Afghanistan,
nobody is going to shake you down”. Furthermore, Prime Minister Narenda Modi
promised to support open and functional Chabahar port of Iran, which gives
Afghanistan sea access. In the recent development, Ashraf Ghani told in an
interview that ‘more agreements are to be inked with in three months’. (I need
to use exact words and cite a source for this).
Ashraf Ghani by taking paradigm shift in foreign policy
vis-à-vis Pakistan has taken risk. The risk is more domestic than at
international arena. A more severe backlash may erupt against overall
rapprochement of Ghani and particularly against the MoU, which has already been
named by the critics who have not been made part of the NUG in malicious term
i.e. ‘infamous’, ‘notorious’, sinful’ and ‘selling out of Afghanistan’ if the
conciliation does not yield an expected outcome.
This time-bounded rapprochement is seemingly neither totally
one-sided nor it is asymmetric concession, but it could be interpreted as an
attempt to mend and balance relation between the two all-time rivals in pursuit
of stabilization of Afghanistan. Presumably
the national unity government pays higher cost, but clock is ticking for
Pakistan and it has more at stake. This seems to be the last chance for
Pakistan to befriend Afghanistan.
[2] This term is deliberately used in Pakistan to show
their anger about the growing visibility of India in Afghanistan.
