The first peaceful power transition (or power-sharing deal)
in the history of Afghanistan took more than six months. The deal was welcomed
globally, but had mix reaction inside Afghanistan. White House, NATO, UK, and
Pakistan assure to continue their cooperation with newly formed government of
Afghanistan. Some residents of Kabul took to street to celebrate the
announcement of Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC)– Ashraf
Ghani as a president and Abdullah Abdullah as a CEO. However, a professor at
Herat University says, “I am not optimistic”.
The National Unity Government (NUG) may have a hard and
tricky path ahead at least domestically. The now team-workers once had
different approaches to various issues including the Taliban. Ashraf Ghani
argued that the Taliban should be incorporated through a holistic plan of
reconciliation, while Abdullah Abdullah said, “I think they [the Taliban]
think, the government [of Afghanistan] should be ousted”. Having contradicted views on specific and
vital issue may adversely affect the overall performance of the NUG.
New cabinet and other important posts are going to be filled though with some Tug of War. Nepotism
matters at least in Afghan bureaucratic culture. Both Ashraf Ghani and
Abdullah, for appeasing their campaigners, seem to be obliged to select from
within own team. Such a heterogeneous working team per se maybe the first hurdle
for NUG to tackle corruption and implement administrative reforms.
The six-month election impasse has faded the notion of
democracy though others say it is the very nature of democracy. However, it is arguable if the stalemate and stubbornness have undermined the legitimacy of some
institutions. The Independent Election
Commission is one of them. The commission’s members were accused of ‘systemic
fraud’. During the elections, counting and auditing process, IEC mostly spoke after each deal was brokered. The commission’s job was to announce the winner and votes.
But, instead, the head of commission Yousuf Nooristani just read a coded joint communiqué after it was agreed.
It is widely expected that the new government will soon sign
bilateral security agreement (BSA) with the United States. Ashraf Ghani and
Abdullah had promised to sign if they win the election. Therefor, signing a BSA
is just a matter of time. This might be the reason that John Kerry willingly
came twice and made around thirty phone calls to strike the deal.
Afghanistan and Pakistan relations, at least at civil
governments level, may go well than Karzai government. Ashraf Ghani as an
ex-World Bank economist and Nawaz Sharif as a pro-business could develop good
trade relations. Such individual-based relations may not put a quick end to
decades-long tense relations, particularly when it comes to Durand Line and
insurgencies.
Generally relations with immediate neighbors, and particularly, in Central Asia could go
smoother. The selection of Abdul Rashid Dustam as a first vice-president was
generally perceived and propagated to establish more functional relations with
Turkmenistan. Abdullah as a Chief Executive can strengthen economic and
political relations with Iran. A regional and important player, India is
already a strategic partner of Afghanistan.
To conclude, we can argue that the NUG would work far better
vis-à-vis neighbors, regional and international players than intra-Afghans
players and stakeholders.
@hazratbahar
